After what happened on Election Night in 2016, it takes a very audacious person to make predictions about the outcome of the election this coming Tuesday.
I couldn’t have been more wrong two years ago. As the totals came in and Donald Trump’s victory became a reality, I was screaming at the television that there was still hope and that Hillary’s “firewall” (the states that always voted Democratic) would save her.
Let’s just say it wasn’t one of my finest hours. My only consolation is that 90% of the political pundits in this country made the same wrong prediction I did.
On Friday I was watching a political talk show on cable television, and halfway through it I threw up my hands and switched it off. There was a panel of experts representing both parties, and the predictions were all over the place.
It was clear there was no consensus. A conservative Republican was certain his party had lost the House of Representatives and went so far as to declare the GOP had walked away from the fight. He cited as evidence the fact that the ubiquitously campaigning Trump has not held one rally for a congressional candidate, harnessing all his firepower for senate and gubernatorial contests.
A Democratic operative asserted that his party had blown it again, and he lamented the mistake made in the Kavanaugh hearings and the absence of a clear message other than being anti-Trump.
There was a Democrat who declared that the blue wave was real and that there was still a chance to win the senate. The House was a done deal with an 80% certainty his party would win. A Republican said the blue wave was becoming a red wave and that the GOP would retain both bodies of Congress.
Who knows what will happen at this point? The conventional wisdom for months has been that the Democrats will regain the House of Representatives but the Republicans would hold on to the Senate.
But here’s one pretty safe prediction. If the Republicans retain both the House and Senate, Donald Trump will take all the credit for the victories.
If the Democrats regain the House of Representatives, he will take absolutely none of the blame. He’ll find something or someone to blame. Maybe Oprah?
The other safe prediction is that regardless of which way the election goes, things are going to get worse. Much worse.
If the Republicans win it all there will be an end to Obamacare, and end to protections regarding pre-existing conditions, and millions of people will be stripped of their health insurance. Social Security and Medicare will be ruthlessly attacked in order to pay for the trillion-dollar tax cut given to billionaires and corporations. There will be a marked increase in racism, sexism, homophobia, Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, and anti-immigrant hostility. There will be more assaults on the environment and much less consumer protection. Trump will try to rewrite the Constitution through executive orders, and a Republican congress will be paralyzed to stop him.
If the Democrats win there’s a good chance Donald Trump will go bat-shit crazy and implode. We may need to “lock him up” after putting him in restraints.
They can use their new subpoena power to call for countless investigations, similar to the 32 Benghazi hearings the GOP held for Hillary Clinton. They can demand to see Trump’s mysterious tax returns, torment him, and ultimately vote to impeach him. He will be tied up until the end of his term and obstructed from implementing any more insane policies.
Here’s what Pulitzer Prize winner Carl Bernstein, the journalist who with Bob Woodward took down President Nixon in the 1970’s. said in Newsweek:
“I talked to people…in touch with the White House who believe that if the congressional midterms are very close and the Democrats were to win by five or seven seats, that Trump was already talking about how to throw legal challenges into the courts, sow confusion, declare a victory, actually, and say that the election’s been illegitimate. That is really under discussion in the White House.”
If you thought the country would return to some semblance of normalcy Wednesday morning, think again. Hold on to your hats. There could be a bumpy ride ahead.
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